{"id":1215,"date":"2016-04-21T12:51:35","date_gmt":"2016-04-21T04:51:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/qylin.ddns.net\/?p=1215"},"modified":"2016-04-21T12:51:35","modified_gmt":"2016-04-21T04:51:35","slug":"zt-%e3%80%8a%e5%a4%a7%e7%a9%ba%e5%a4%b4%e3%80%8b%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%80%e6%ac%a1%e5%80%bc%e5%be%97%e7%94%a8%e4%b8%80%e7%94%9f%e7%ad%89%e5%be%85%e7%9a%84%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ido.fm\/?p=1215","title":{"rendered":"ZT \u300a\u5927\u7a7a\u5934\u300b\uff1a\u4e00\u6b21\u503c\u5f97\u7528\u4e00\u751f\u7b49\u5f85\u7684\u4ea4\u6613"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e869\u5e74\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u300a\u5927\u7a7a\u5934\u300b\u7684\u70ed\u6620\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u53c8\u5f00\u59cb\u91cd\u65b0\u8ba8\u8bba\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bdd\u9898\u3002\u7b14\u8005\u5f88\u65e9\u5c31\u8bfb\u5b8c\u4e86\u539f\u8457\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u4e5f\u8ddf\u98ce\u5199\u4e00\u7bc7\u4e0d\u662f\u5f71\u8bc4\u7684\u5f71\u8bc4\uff0c\u4e0d\u8c08\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u7684\u60c5\u8282\u548c\u8868\u6f14\uff0c\u53ea\u8c08\u90a3\u573a\u51b3\u6218\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u3001\u80cc\u666f\u548c\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u5728\u56de\u987e\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u5728\u5f53\u4e0b\u6251\u6714\u8ff7\u79bb\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u589e\u5f3a\u5bf9\u5927\u52bf\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u843d\u5165\u4ece\u4f17\u7684\u7aa0\u81fc\u3002\n<\/p>\n

1. \u7a76\u7adf\u8c01\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5927\u7a7a\u5934?\n<\/p>\n

\u300a\u5927\u7a7a\u5934\u300b\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u523b\u753b\u4e86\u56db\u8def\u505a\u7a7a\u6b21\u8d37\u7684\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f\uff1a\u2460 Scion Capital\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406MichaelBurry \u2461 \u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u94f6\u884c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458Greg Lippmann\uff0c\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u6539\u540d\u53ebJared Vannett \u2462 FrontPoint Partners LLC\u7684SteveEisman\uff0c\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u6539\u53ebMark Baum \u2463Cornwall Capital\u7684Jamie Mai\u3001Charlie Ledley\u548cBenHockett\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u56db\u8def\u4eba\u9a6c\u6700\u540e\u7684\u83b7\u76ca\u5982\u4f55\u5462\uff1fMichael Burry\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u4ee56\u4ebf\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u57282007\u5e74\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8d5a\u53d6\u4e867.5\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\uff1bGreg Lippmann\u5e76\u975e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u505a\u7a7a\u5de5\u5177CDS\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u548c\u505a\u5e02\u8005\uff0c\u4ed62007\u5e74\u9886\u53d6\u4e864700\u4e07\u7f8e\u91d1\u5956\u91d1\uff1b\u4e24\u4e2a\u5c0f\u4f19\u5b50Jamie\u548cCharlie\u7684Cornwall Capital\u83b7\u52298000\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6570\u989d\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ea\u67093000\u4e07\u7f8e\u91d1\u7684\u672c\u91d1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56de\u62a5\u4e5f\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u53ef\u89c2\u7684\uff1bSteve Eisman\u8d5a\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u94b1\u6ca1\u6709\u5177\u4f53\u62ab\u9732\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u6700\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u670915\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u57fa\u91d1\u57282007\u548c2008\u5e74\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u5e94\u8be5\u8ddfBurry\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u6216\u7565\u5c11\u3002\u7efc\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u56db\u8def\u4eba\u9a6c\u4e00\u5171\u8d5a\u5230\u4e86\u4e0d\u523020\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\u3002\n<\/p>\n

20\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u5728\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u770b\u6765\u662f\u5929\u6587\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u8fd9\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u54c0\u9e3f\u904d\u91ce\u76842007\u5e74\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c20\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u53ea\u662f\u771f\u6b63”\u5927\u7a7a\u5934”John Paulson\u8d5a\u7684\u94b1\u7684\u96f6\u5934\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7a7a\u5934\uff0cPaulson\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u516c\u53f8Paulson&Co.\u57282007\u5e74\u901a\u8fc7\u505a\u7a7aCDO\uff08Collateralized Debt Obligation\uff0c\u62c5\u4fdd\u503a\u52a1\u51ed\u8bc1\uff09\u8d5a\u4e86120\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u57282008\u5e74\u53c8\u901a\u8fc7\u505a\u7a7a\u94f6\u884c\u8d5a\u4e86\u8d85\u8fc780\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u9886\u57df\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e9b\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f4e\u8c03\u5730\u901a\u8fc7\u505a\u7a7a\u6765\u725f\u5229\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cHarbinger Capital Partners\u7684PhilipFalcone\uff0c\u4e5f\u542c\u4e86Greg Lippmann\u5bf9CDS\u7684\u8bb2\u89e3\u548c\u63a8\u9500\uff0c\u4e0e\u7535\u5f71\u4e2dMarkBaum\u56e2\u961f\u5bf9Jared Vannett\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u8d28\u7591\u548c\u558a\u53eb\u76f8\u53cd\uff0cFalcone\u7acb\u5373\u5927\u7b14\u4e70\u516510\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684CDS\uff0c\u4e24\u53ea\u4e3b\u8981\u57fa\u91d12007\u5e74\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5747\u8d85\u8fc7100%\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u5927\u5e08\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4ed6\u7684\u4f84\u5b50\u5f7c\u5f97\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\uff08\u8ddfPaulson\u662f\u670b\u53cb\uff09\u7ea6Paulson\u8fdb\u884c\u5348\u9910\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u601d\u8def\u540e\u4e5f\u5f00\u59cb\u505a\u7a7a\u6b21\u8d37\uff0c\u57282007\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u4e2d\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u83b7\u5229\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\u3002\u4e0b\u56fe\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d12007\u5e74\u8868\u73b0\uff08\u8003\u8651\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6807\u9ec4\u8272\u7684\u5747\u4e3aPaulson&Co.\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\"\"\/\n\t<\/p>\n

John Paulson\u6574\u4e2a\u505a\u7a7a\u6b21\u8d37\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5728\u300aThe Greatest Trade Ever\u300b\u4e2d\u88ab\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u5f88\u8be6\u7ec6\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u505a\u7a7a\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a”\u5047\u8bbe-\u8bba\u8bc1-\u7b79\u8d44-\u4e0b\u6ce8-\u7b49\u5f85-\u6536\u5272”\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u5957\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u8fd0\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b\u3002Paulson\u4e0a\u767e\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\u7684\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u7edd\u975e\u8fd0\u6c14\u8ddf\u5076\u7136\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6b65\u6b65\u4e3a\u8425\u8fd0\u7b79\u5e37\u5e44\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u505a\u7a7a\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u4e00\u5f20\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u56fe\u8868\u5f00\u59cb\u8bf4\u8d77\u3002\n<\/p>\n

2. \u4e00\u5f20\u4ef7\u503c200\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\u7684\u56fe\u8868\n<\/p>\n

\u5728\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u524d\uff0cJohn Paulson\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5176\u8c8c\u4e0d\u626c\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u6e38\u79bb\u4e8e\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u63a5\u8fd140\u5c81\u624d\u6210\u7acb\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u7ecf\u8fc710\u5e74\u7684\u8dcc\u8dcc\u649e\u649e\uff0c2003\u5e74\u516c\u53f8\u7ba1\u7406\u8d44\u4ea7\u89c4\u6a21\u8fbe\u523015\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8bba\u89c4\u6a21\u53ea\u80fd\u7b97\u662f\u65e0\u540d\u4e4b\u8f88\u3002Paulson\u8eab\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5f88\u96be\u770b\u51fa\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u5927\u4f6c\u7684\u5f71\u5b50\uff0c\u4ed6\u51fa\u5dee\u5750\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8231\u3001\u8c03\u7814\u5750\u6700\u540e\u6392\u3001\u5411\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u63d0\u95ee\u65f6\u6bd5\u606d\u6bd5\u656c\uff0c45\u5c81\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u7ed3\u5a5a\uff0c\u5bf9\u8c61\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5973\u52a9\u624b\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u4e0e\u4f17\u591a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5c11\u5e74\u5f97\u5fd7\u7684\u4fca\u624d\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e0e\u4f4f\u5728\u5eb7\u6d85\u72c4\u683c\u5dde\u683c\u6797\u5a01\u6cbb\u9547\u4e0a\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u5927\u4f6c\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0cPaulson\u90fd\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u9ed8\u9ed8\u65e0\u95fb\u3002\u8ddfSteve Eisman\u957f\u671f\u6d78\u6deb\u5728\u6b21\u7ea7\u62b5\u62bc\u503a\u5238\u884c\u4e1a\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\uff0cPaulson\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u516c\u53f8\u524d\u671f\u4e3b\u8981\u505a\u5e76\u8d2d\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u5bf9\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u6d89\u730e\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u8001\u670b\u53cbPaolo Pellegrini\u7ed9\u4ed6\u6253\u90a3\u4e2a\u6c42\u804c\u7535\u8bdd\u4e4b\u524d\uff0cPaulson\u5bf9\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u5728\u623f\u4ef7\u98de\u6da8\u76842004\u5e74\u5c06\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u5357\u5b89\u666e\u987f\u7684\u623f\u5b50\u5356\u6389\uff0c\u6539\u6210\u79df\u623f\u4f4f\u3002\n<\/p>\n

Paolo Pellegrini\u662fJohn Paulson\u5728\u54c8\u4f5b\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u540c\u5b66\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u7ecf\u5386\u66f2\u6298\u3002\u5728\u5165\u804cPaulson&Co.\u4e4b\u524d\uff0cPellegrini\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e24\u6b21\u79bb\u5a5a\u4e24\u6b21\u88ab\u89e3\u96c7\u4e86\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u79bb\u5a5a\u5f97\u6765\u768430\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u79ef\u84c4\u3002Paulson\u53ea\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e2a\u521d\u7ea7\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u7684\u804c\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4ecd\u7136\u611f\u6fc0\u4e0d\u5c3d\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u8d77\u65e9\u8d2a\u9ed1\uff0c\u8ddf\u6bd4\u4ed6\u5c0f20\u5c81\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u4e00\u6837\u5728\u683c\u5b50\u95f4\u91cc\u505a\u7740\u5206\u6790\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u57282004\u5e74\u768410\u6708\uff0cPellegrini\u5728\u8d70\u5eca\u91cc\u62e6\u4e0b\u4e86Paulson\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5411\u4ed6\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u53eb\u505aCDS\uff08CreditDefault Swap\uff0c\u4fe1\u7528\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4e92\u6362\uff09\u7684\u5b8c\u7f8e\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u6765\u505a\u7a7a\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u6210\u719f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u6b21\u91cd\u6ce8\uff0c\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u6536\u76ca\u6bd4\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u524d\u8005\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u624e\u5b9e\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u540e\u8005\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8003\u91cf\u65f6\u673a\u4e0e\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u81ea\u5927\u8427\u6761\u4ee5\u6765\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u5168\u56fd\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8fc7\uff0c”\u623f\u4ef7\u6c38\u8fdc\u6da8”\u6df1\u5165\u4eba\u5fc3\uff08\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u8033\u719f\uff1f\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u6562\u53bb\u8bf4\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u4ef7\u4f1a\u8dcc\uff0c\u9051\u8bba\u4e0b\u91cd\u6ce8\u53bb\u505a\u7a7a\u5b83\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u9a8c\u8bc1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0cPellegrini\u548c\u540c\u4e8b\u4e00\u8d77\u505a\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u6c47\u603b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u5f20\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u56fe\u8868\uff1a\u81ea1975\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u5254\u9664\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\u3002Pellegrini\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u57281975\u5e74\u52302000\u5e74\uff0c\u5254\u9664\u901a\u80c0\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u5e74\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\u53ea\u67091.4%\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u4e94\u5e74\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\u5374\u57287%\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u91cd\u65b0\u56de\u5230\u8d8b\u52bf\u7ebf\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u5e45\u5ea6\u6700\u5927\u53ef\u4ee5\u523040%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5f20\u56fe\uff0c\u5960\u5b9a\u4e86Paulson&Co.\u505a\u7a7a\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4f9d\u636e\u3002Paulson\u89c6\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\u8868\u4e3a\u4ed6\u7684”\u7f57\u585e\u5854\u77f3\u7891”\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u6253\u5370\u51fa\u6765\u6574\u5929\u50cf\u73cd\u5b9d\u4e00\u6837\u7ed9\u5c55\u793a\u7ed9\u4ed6\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u770b\uff08\u5f53\u7136\u662f\u5728\u505a\u7a7a\u7ed3\u675f\u4e4b\u540e\uff09\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\"\"\/\n\t<\/p>\n

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\u4e0a\u8ff0\u90a3\u5f20\u88ab\u8a89\u4e3a”\u4ef7\u503c200\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1”\u7684\u56fe\u8868\u80cc\u540e\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a48\u5c81\u7684”\u8001”\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u4e0d\u5206\u663c\u591c\u5730\u5bf9\u5b66\u672f\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u6587\u732e\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\u505a\u57fa\u7840\u7814\u7a76\u540e\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u53cd\u89c2\u56fd\u5185\u5f88\u591a\u673a\u6784\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e8635\u5c81\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u5c31\u4e0d\u505a\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4f9d\u9760\u5b9e\u4e60\u751f\u548c\u5356\u65b9\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u610f\u5473\u5f3a\u70c8\u3002\u540c\u4e00\u5f20\u56fe\u8868\uff0c\u5728\u61c2\u7684\u4eba\u624b\u4e2d\u4ef7\u503c\u8fde\u57ce\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u61c2\u7684\u4eba\u624b\u4e2d\u5219\u4e00\u6587\u4e0d\u503c\u3002\u50cf\u8fd9\u79cd\u660e\u663e\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u67d0\u79cd\u5e02\u573a\u626d\u66f2\u7684\u56fe\u8868\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u592a\u591a\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u5982\u503a\u52a1\u3001\u6760\u6746\u3001M2\u3001\u623f\u4ef7\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e00\u800c\u8db3\uff0c\u4f46\u56fd\u5185\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u56fe\u8868\u90fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u9ebb\u6728\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u89c1\u602a\u4e0d\u602a\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u5426\u5b9a\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u60c5\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u8d8a\u662f\u9762\u5bf9\u5927\u5bb6\u4e60\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5e38\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u5982”xx\u6c38\u8fdc\u6da8”\uff0c\u8d8a\u662f\u5e94\u8be5\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u9897\u656c\u754f\u548c\u8b66\u60d5\u7684\u5fc3\u3002\n<\/p>\n

3. \u505a\u7a7a\u5982\u4f55\u6210\u4e3a\u7edd\u4f73\u7684\u751f\u610f\uff1f\n<\/p>\n

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“\u8fd9\u662f\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u597d\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff01”Paulson\u51b2\u7740\u4ed6\u7684\u4e0b\u5c5e\u6fc0\u52a8\u7684\u558a\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\u5728\u505a\u7a7a\u623f\u4ef7\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u5356\u6389\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4f4f\u623f\uff0c\u79df\u623f\u4f4f\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u6ca1\u6709\u6027\u4ef7\u6bd4\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u623f\u4ef7\u8dcc20%\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u518d\u4e70\u56de\u6765\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4ea4\u6613\u8d39\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u670915%\u7684\u6536\u76ca\uff1b\u623f\u4ef7\u6da820%\uff0c\u4f60\u518d\u4e70\u56de\u6765\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4ea4\u6613\u8d39\u7528\u4f60\u635f\u5931\u4f1a\u8d85\u8fc725%\uff0c\u663e\u7136\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u7b14\u5212\u7b97\u7684\u751f\u610f\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5404\u8def\u505a\u7a7a\u4eba\u9a6c\u4e2d\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u79df\u623f\u4f4f\uff0cPaolo Pellegrini\u6839\u672c\u4e70\u4e0d\u8d77\u7ebd\u7ea6\u7684\u623f\u5b50\uff0c\u521a\u52a0\u5165Paulson&Co.\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2aHBS\u6bd5\u4e1a\u768448\u5c81\u4e2d\u5e74\u4eba\u53ea\u80fd\u79df\u5f97\u8d77\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e00\u5ba4\u6237\uff1bJohn Paulson2004\u5e74\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u6c49\u666e\u987f\u7684\u623f\u5b50\u5356\u6389\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u623f\u5b50\u6da8\u592a\u5feb\u4e70\u4e0d\u56de\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u5c31\u79df\u623f\u4f4f\u3002\n<\/p>\n

Jamie Mai\u548cCharlie Ledley\u4e00\u76f4\u79df\u623f\u4f4f\uff0c\u5e03\u62c9\u5fb7\u76ae\u7279\u9970\u6f14\u7684Ben Hockett\u53d1\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u623f\u5b50\u6da8\u5230\u4e86100\u4e07\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u51fa\u79df\uff0c\u79df\u91d1\u53ea\u67092500\u7f8e\u5143\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u5e74\u79df\u552e\u6bd4\u8d85\u8fc730\u500d\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u4e5f\u5356\u6389\u4e86\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u79df\u4e86\u4e2a\u516c\u5bd3\u4f4f\u3002\u53ef\u60f3\u800c\u77e5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5bf9\u623f\u4ef7\u770b\u7a7a\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5728\u770b\u5230CDS\u8fd9\u79cd”\u9519\u4e86\u8d548%\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e86\u8d5a1200%”\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u662f\u4f55\u7b49\u7684\u6b23\u559c\u82e5\u72c2\u3002\n<\/p>\n

Michael Burry\u6700\u5148\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u98ce\u9669-\u6536\u76ca\u626d\u66f2\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0cGreg Lippmann\u770b\u4e86Burry\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff08\u590d\u65e6\u5927\u5b66\u6bd5\u4e1a\u7684\u5f90\u5e7c\u4e8e\u5728\u5206\u6790\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u90a3\u4e2a\u5e26\u7740\u773c\u955c\u8ddfGreg\u4e00\u8d77\u53bb\u53c2\u52a0\u8def\u6f14\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\uff09\uff0c\u9a6c\u4e0a\u5c31\u77e5\u9053CDS\u5bf9\u771f\u6b63\u770b\u7a7a\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u6765\u8bf4\u5177\u5907\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u5f00\u59cb\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u521b\u9020\u8fd9\u79cd\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u5356\u7ed9\u61c2\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u3002\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\uff0cGreg Lippmann\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u4e00\u5171\u521b\u9020\u51fa350\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684CDS\uff0c\u4e3a\u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u94f6\u884c\u8d5a\u53d6\u4e86\u4e30\u539a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8d39\u7528\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u5fb7\u94f6\u81ea\u5df1\u6301\u6709\u4e86\u7ea650\u4ebf\u7684CDS\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u8fd950\u4ebf\u7684\u505a\u7a7a\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u5fb7\u94f6\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u7684\u62a5\u8868\u5c06\u66f4\u52a0\u96be\u770b\u3002Jamie\u548cCharlie\u4e24\u4e2a\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\uff0c\u57282006\u5e749\u6708\uff0c\u7ffb\u770b\u4e00\u4e2a\u670b\u53cb\u9001\u8fc7\u6765\u7684GregLippmann\u7684CDS\u63a8\u9500\u6750\u6599\uff08\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u662f\u5728JPMorgan\u5927\u5385\u4e2d\u7ffb\u770b\u522b\u4eba\u6254\u6389\u7684\u6750\u6599\uff09\uff0c\u5bf9\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u4e1a\u52a1\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u77e5\u7684\u4ed6\uff0c\u611f\u89c9”\u597d\u5f97\u7b80\u76f4\u6709\u70b9\u513f\u4e0d\u50cf\u662f\u771f\u7684”\u3002\n<\/p>\n

Jamie\u548cCharlie\u80fd\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u55c5\u89c9\uff0c\u662f\u8ddf\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u77ed\u6682\u4f46\u662f\u4ee4\u4eba\u5482\u820c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u5386\u6709\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\uff0c2003\u5e74\u5728\u52a0\u5dde\u4f2f\u514b\u5229\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f66\u5e93\u4e2d\u521b\u529e\u4e86Cornwall Capital\u2014\u5eb7\u6c83\u5c14\u8d44\u672c\uff08\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u5316\u8eabBrownfieldCapital\uff09\uff0c\u521d\u59cb\u8d44\u672c\u53ea\u670911\u4e07\u7f8e\u91d1\u3002\u5eb7\u6c83\u5c14\u8d44\u672c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7406\u5ff5\uff08\u5982\u679c\u6709\u7684\u8bdd\uff09\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u5bfb\u627e\u54ea\u4e9b\u6536\u76ca\u8ddf\u98ce\u9669\u4e25\u91cd\u4e0d\u5339\u914d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u4ed6\u4eec\u7b2c\u4e00\u7b14\u91cd\u5927\u4ea4\u6613\uff1a\u4e70\u5165\u4e00\u5bb6\u53eb\u505aCapital One Financial\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u671f\u6743\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u8fd9\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u6b63\u9677\u5165\u63a9\u76d6\u4e8f\u635f\u7684\u6307\u63a7\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u57282\u5929\u4e4b\u5185\u8dcc\u4e8660%\uff0c\u5f98\u5f8a\u572830\u7f8e\u91d1\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4ed4\u7ec6\u800c\u6df1\u5165\u5730\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u516c\u53f8\u6f5c\u5728\u98ce\u9669\u88ab\u5938\u5927\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u516c\u53f8\u9020\u5047\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u5e94\u8be5\u8dcc\u50120\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u9020\u5047\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u5e94\u8be5\u56de\u523060\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u9020\u5047\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8d85\u8fc750%\u3002\u5f53\u65f6”\u4ee540\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4e24\u5e74\u534a\u4e4b\u5185\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u95f4\u8d2d\u4e70Capital One Financial\u80a1\u7968”\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u552e\u4ef7\u53ea\u67093\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u5eb7\u6c83\u5c14\u8d44\u672c\u9a6c\u4e0a\u4e70\u51658000\u4efd\uff0c\u82b1\u8d392.6\u4e07\u7f8e\u91d1\uff08\u76f8\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec11\u4e07\u7f8e\u91d1\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4ed3\u4f4d\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f4e\uff09\u3002\u4e0d\u4e45\u4e4b\u540e\uff0cCapital One Financial\u7684\u8d1f\u9762\u6d88\u606f\u5f00\u59cb\u6d88\u9000\uff0c2.6\u4e07\u7f8e\u91d1\u7684\u671f\u6743\u6da8\u5230\u4e8652.6\u4e07\u7f8e\u91d1\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\u5728\u6b64\u4e4b\u540e\uff0cCornwall Capital\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u5bfb\u627e\u90a3\u79cd\u4e00\u5f88\u5c0f\u8d4c\u6ce8\u6295\u6ce8\u5f88\u5927\u8d54\u7387\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ece\u6b27\u6d32\u56f0\u5883\u516c\u53f8\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u732a\u8089\u3001\u4e59\u9187\u6c7d\u6cb9\u3001\u6cf0\u94e2\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8303\u56f4\u975e\u5e38\u5e7f\u3002\u52302005\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u8d22\u5bcc\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u4e861200\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5230\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u7740\u624b\u505a\u7a7a\u6b21\u8d37\u76842006\u5e74\uff0c\u672c\u91d1\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u52303000\u4e07\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u60ca\u4eba\uff01Jamie\u548cCharlie\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u601d\u8def\uff0c\u7740\u91cd\u4e8e\u949f\u5f62\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u80a5\u5c3e\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u6b64\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u671f\u6743\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u8ddfNassim Taleb\uff08\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300b\u4f5c\u8005\uff09\u548cDidierSornette\uff08\u9f99\u738b\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\u8005\uff09\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u5951\u5408\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5f7c\u65f6\u7684Jamie\u548cCharlie\u8fd8\u7b97\u662f\u521d\u51fa\u8305\u5e90\u6beb\u65e0\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\uff0c\u6000\u7740\u6fc0\u52a8\u7684\u5fc3\uff0c\u98a4\u6296\u7684\u624b\uff0c\u671d\u5723\u822c\u5730\u6ce8\u89c6\u7740\u6295\u8d44\u94f6\u884c\u5927\u5385\u5149\u6ed1\u7684\u5927\u7406\u77f3\u5730\u677f\u548c\u8863\u7740\u5149\u9c9c\u7684\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u7cbe\u82f1\u4eec\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6ca1\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u667a\u5546\u5b66\u5386\u80cc\u666f\u8fdc\u80dc\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u4f17\u766b\u72c2\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c45\u7136\u6bd4\u4ed6\u4eec\u60f3\u8c61\u4e2d\u8981\u8822\u7684\u591a\u7684\u591a\u3002\n<\/p>\n

4. \u7b79\u8d44\uff0c\u8d77\u8dd1\u7ebf\u7684\u6e38\u620f\n<\/p>\n

\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u548c\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u652f\u6301\u540e\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u8981\u52a8\u624b\u4e86\uff01\u4f46\u5728\u8fd9\u4e4b\u524d\uff0cPaulson\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u9700\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u7b79\u8d44\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u7b79\u8d44\u80fd\u529b\u662f\u6838\u5fc3\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u7684\u5de6\u53f3\u624b\uff0cPaulson\u5728\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u9887\u5177\u5929\u8d4b\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u4ed6\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u590d\u6742\u9ad8\u6df1\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u8bb2\u89e3\u7684\u5e73\u6613\u8fd1\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u76f4\u52302006\u5e746\u6708\uff0c\u65b0\u57fa\u91d1\u4e00\u5171\u624d\u7b79\u96c6\u4e861.47\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u53c8\u7ecf\u8fc7\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u6709\u4e86\u5927\u6295\u8d44\u5546\u5982\u5f7c\u5f97\u2022\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u52a0\u5165\uff0c\u65b0\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec8\u4e8e\u7b79\u5230\u4e867\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u516c\u53f8\u4e4b\u524d\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u7528\u6765\u505a\u7a7a\u6b21\u8d37\u7684\u7cae\u8349\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u624d\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u6301\u6709\u4e86\u9ad8\u8fbe250\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\u7684CDS\u5408\u7ea6\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\u5728\u300a\u5927\u7a7a\u5934\u300b\u56db\u7ec4\u4eba\u9a6c\u4e2d\uff0c\u5728\u7b79\u8d44\u65b9\u9762\u906d\u9047\u6700\u5927\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u662fMichael Burry\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u7b79\u8d44\u662f\u5de6\u53f3\u624b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48Burry\u7684\u53f3\u624b\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u5148\u5929\u6b8b\u75be\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u91d1\u80fd\u52df\u96c6\u987a\u5229\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4e1a\u4f59\u65f6\u95f4\u7ecf\u8425\u7684\u8d22\u7ecf\u5199\u4f5c\u7f51\u7ad9\uff08\u5148\u6210\u4e3a\u8d22\u7ecf\u5927v\uff0c\u518d\u52df\u8d44\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e5f\u5f88\u50cf\uff09\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e00\u4e2a\u8425\u4e1a\u90e8\u8dd1\u7740\u53bb\u8def\u6f14\uff0c\u6050\u6015\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3002Michael Burry\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u5168\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u505a\u7a7a\u6b21\u8d37\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u9886\u5148\u5e02\u573a\u975e\u5e38\u591a\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0cGreg Lippmann\u662f\u53d7\u5230\u4e86Burry\u7684\u542f\u53d1\uff08\u7535\u5f71\u4e2dGreg\u5728\u591c\u5e97\u542c\u5230\u4e86Burry\u5728\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u5411\u9ad8\u76db\u7b49\u6295\u884c\u8d2d\u4e70CDS\u7684\u6d88\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u624d\u5f00\u59cb\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u63a8\u9500CDS\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u524d\u540e\u4e00\u5171\u5356\u51fa\u4e86350\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684CDS\uff08\u5176\u4e2d50\u4ebf\u662f\u5fb7\u610f\u5fd7\u94f6\u884c\u81ea\u8425\u8d26\u6237\u6301\u6709\uff09\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u505a\u7a7a\u6b21\u8d37\u7684\u5927\u4f6c\u90fd\u662f\u53d7Lippmann\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cGreg Lippmann\u7b97\u662f”\u5934\u53f7\u9f13\u5439\u5458”\uff0c\u4f46Burry\u624d\u662f\u5f53\u4e4b\u65e0\u6127\u7684CDS\u4ea4\u6613\u521b\u59cb\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5148\u9a71\u8005\uff0c\u5728\u505a\u7a7a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u50cfPaulson\u90a3\u6837\u5bf9\u7740\u5ba2\u6237\u5a13\u5a13\u9053\u6765\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u7528\u8f83\u4e3a\u5f3a\u786c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u56de\u5e94\u5ba2\u6237\u7684\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u4e0a\uff0cBurry\u6ca1\u6709\u53c2\u900f”\u6295\u8d44\u4eba-\u53d7\u6258\u4eba”\u8fd9\u79cd\u4fe1\u6258\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u672c\u8d28\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u8bf4\u662f\u4e0d\u53ca\u683c\u7684\u3002\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u7834\u706d\u4e4b\u524d\uff0cBurry\u5c31\u5728\u5ba2\u6237\u7684\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\u4e0d\u65ad\u51cf\u6301\u6301\u6709\u7684\u5b9d\u8d35\u7684CDS\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u751a\u4e3a\u53ef\u60dc\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1Scion Capital\u5728\u8fd0\u884c\u671f\u95f4\u7ed9\u5ba2\u6237\u5e26\u6765\u4e86489.34%\u7684\u603b\u6536\u76ca\uff0cBurry\u4ecd\u7136\u57282008\u5e74\u5173\u95ed\u4e86\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u62ff\u77401\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\u7684\u4e1a\u7ee9\u63d0\u6210\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u79c1\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4ed6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u5f52\u5bbf\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u662f\uff0cBurry\u975e\u5e38\u63a8\u5d07\u8292\u683c\uff0c\u800c\u8292\u683c\u5bf9\u505a\u7a7a\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u5c31\u662f”\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u559c\u6b22\u4ee5\u75db\u82e6\u5730\u4ea4\u6613\u6765\u6362\u91d1\u94b1\u3002”\u4f46\u9762\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u6309\u637a\u4f4f\u4e0d\u5fc3\u52a8\u662f\u5f88\u96be\u7684\u3002\u5728\u300a\u5927\u7a7a\u5934\u300b\u7684\u56db\u7ec4\u4eba\u9a6c\u4e2d\uff0c\u552f\u4e00\u4ee5\u672c\u91d1\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5c31\u662fJamie\u548cCharlie\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u9762\u5bf9\u7b79\u8d44\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u672c\u91d1\u76f8\u5bf9\u6765\u8bf4\u5c11\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u751a\u81f3\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e24\u4e2a\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\u3002Paulson\u80fd\u591f\u8d5a\u53d6\u5176\u4ed6\u56e2\u961f\u603b\u548c\u7684\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u4e00\u5728\u4e8e\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u672c\u91d1\uff0c\u9762\u5bf9\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u4ea4\u6613\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u5927\u6279\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u4e0e\u4ed6\u5e76\u80a9\u4f5c\u6218\uff1b\u4e8c\u5728\u4e8e\u505a\u7a7a\u7684\u575a\u51b3\uff0c\u6beb\u65e0\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e3b\u4eba\u516c\u60b2\u5929\u60af\u4eba\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff08\u5176\u5b9e\u4e5f\u5927\u90fd\u662f\u7535\u5f71\u7f8e\u5316\u800c\u5df2\uff09\uff0cPaulson\u751a\u81f3\u4e0e\u6295\u884c\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u66f4\u591a\u7684CDO\u7528\u6765\u505a\u7a7a\uff08\u591a\u8fbe50\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u5de6\u7ffc\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u597d\u83b1\u575e\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u662f\u6ed4\u5929\u5927\u7f6a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48Paulson\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u6700\u5927\u7a7a\u5934\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u88ab\u62cd\u8fdb\u7535\u5f71\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u5728\u300aInside Job\u300b\u91cc\u9762\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53cd\u9762\u5178\u578b\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\n<\/p>\n

5. \u5bf9\u624b\u76d8\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u90fd\u662f\u7eb8\u8001\u864e\n<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u5404\u8def\u4eba\u9a6c\u5168\u90e8\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0b\u4e86\u91cd\u6ce8\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u7b49\u5f85\u548c\u714e\u71ac\u3002\u7cfb\u7edf\u5b66\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u52a8\u91cf\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u7684\u7269\u4f53\uff0c\u8981\u7ecf\u8fc7\u975e\u5e38\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u62b5\u6297\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u539f\u672c\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u62d0\u5934\u9700\u8981\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5219\u66f4\u957f\u3002\u300a\u5927\u7a7a\u5934\u300b\u4e2d\u76f8\u5f53\u505a\u7684\u7b14\u58a8\u5728\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u524d\u7684\u573a\u666f\uff1a\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7387\u5df2\u7ecf\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u623f\u4ef7\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u62d0\u5934\uff0c\u4f46\u7a7a\u5934\u4ecd\u7136\u6ca1\u6cd5\u8d5a\u94b1\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6574\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fd8\u5728\u505a\u6700\u540e\u7684\u6297\u4e89\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u62b5\u6297\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u7684\u5f3a\u70c8\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u53c2\u4e0e\u505a\u7a7a\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u90fd\u5f00\u59cb\u6000\u7591\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c”\u96be\u9053\u6211\u9519\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u96be\u9053\u5e02\u573a\u77e5\u9053\u4e00\u4e9b\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5417\uff1f”Greg Lippmann\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5356\u65b9\uff0c\u6df1\u8c19\u5ba2\u6237\u5fc3\u7406\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b89\u6392\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u53bbLas Vegas\u9762\u89c1\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u3002\u5728\u8d4c\u57ce\uff0cLippmann\u5305\u4e86\u4e00\u5bb6\u65e5\u6599\u5e97\u7684\u94c1\u677f\u70e7\u70e4\u9910\u5385\uff0c\u4e00\u51714\u4e2a\u70e7\u70e4\u53f0\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u53f0\u5b50\u90fd\u5b89\u6392\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u505a\u7a7a\u6b21\u8d37\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5356\u51faCDS\uff08\u505a\u591a\u503a\u5238\uff09\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\uff0cLippmann\u5e0c\u671b\u5ba2\u6237\u901a\u8fc7\u76f4\u63a5\u4e86\u5f53\u7684\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u660e\u767d\u6574\u4e2a\u4f53\u7cfb\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u7684\u75af\u72c2\u548c\u611a\u8822\u3002\u8ddfSteve Eisman\u5bf9\u684c\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u534e\u88d4\u53eb\u505a\u8d75\u6587\uff08WingChau\uff09\uff0c\u603b\u662f\u4e00\u526f\u6311\u7740\u7709\u6bdb\u9ad8\u6df1\u83ab\u6d4b\u6b20\u63cd\u7684\u6837\u5b50\uff0c\u804c\u4f4d\u662f\u54c8\u4e01\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\u7684CDO\u7ecf\u7406\uff0c\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u662f\u628a\u5ba2\u6237\u7684\u94b1\u51e0\u4e4e\u5168\u90e8\u4e8f\u5149\u3002\u540e\u6765\u4e0a\u6620\uff0c\u8d75\u6587\u8fd8\u53bb\u8d77\u8bc9Steve Eisman\u548c\u300a\u5927\u7a7a\u5934\u300b\u4f5c\u8005\uff0c\u63a7\u544a\u4ed6\u4eec\u628a\u4ed6\u5851\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6beb\u65e0\u804c\u4e1a\u64cd\u5b88\u7684\u9a97\u5b50\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\u5728\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\uff0cMark Baum\u8ddf\u540c\u4e8b\u4e00\u8d77\u53bb\u8bc4\u7ea7\u673a\u6784\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u975e\u5e38\u65e0\u8bed\u7684\u56de\u5e94\uff0c\u5bf9\u65b9\u4e00\u526f”\u4f60\u662f\u54ea\u4e2a\u5355\u4f4d\u7684\uff1f”\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bed\u6c14\uff0c\u8ba9Mark Baum\u6df1\u523b\u7406\u89e3\u5230\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u7684\u534e\u5c14\u8857\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u62b5\u62bc\u503a\u5238\u7edf\u7edf\u7ed1\u67b6\uff0c\u5728”\u623f\u4ef7\u6c38\u8fdc\u6da8”\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u97f3\u4e50\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e38\u8bc6\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u88ab\u629b\u5728\u8111\u540e\uff0c\u6293\u7d27\u8d5a\u94b1\u624d\u662f\u738b\u9053\u3002\u8bc4\u7ea7\u673a\u6784\u4e27\u5931\u516c\u6b63\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5728\u54ea\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u4e0d\u9c9c\u89c1\u3002\u62ff\u56fd\u5185\u6700\u8fd1\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u503a\u5238\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u4e2d\u94c1\u7269\u503a\u505c\u6b62\u4ea4\u6613\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u8bc4\u7ea7\u662fAA+\uff0c15\u534e\u6631 CP001 \u8fdd\u7ea6\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u8bc4\u7ea7\u662fAA\uff0c15\u4e1c\u7279\u94a2 CP001\u8fdd\u7ea6\u4e4b\u524d\u8bc4\u7ea7\u662fAA\uff0c\u540e\u4e24\u8005\u8bc4\u7ea7\u76ee\u524d\u5728\u8fdd\u7ea6\u540e\u90fd\u53d8\u6210\u4e86D\u3002\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u8bc4\u7ea7\u673a\u6784\u4f1a\u7ed9\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u6216\u592e\u4f01\u62c5\u4fdd\u7684\u503a\u5238\u7ed9\u51fa\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u8bc4\u7ea7\u5417\uff1f\u6211\u770b\u5f88\u96be\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u5e95\u4e0b\u6ca1\u6709\u65b0\u9c9c\u4e8b\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u66fe\u7ecf\u8bf4\u8fc7\uff0c”\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd238\u5e74\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u770b\u7a7a\u7684\u4eba\u8c01\u6700\u7ec8\u53d7\u76ca\u4e86\uff1f”\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u662f\u57282015\u5e74\u8bf4\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ba9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u505a\u7a7a\uff08\u800c\u975e\u770b\u8870\u7f8e\u56fd\uff09\u7684\u7a7a\u5934\u4eec\u5fc3\u60ca\u80c6\u6218\u3002\u6309\u7167PerTrac\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u670913675\u5bb6\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u548c\u6570\u5343\u5bb6\u5176\u4ed6\u7c7b\u578b\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u6784\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u6295\u8d44CDS\u7684\u8bb8\u53ef\uff0c\u4f46\u5728Greg Lippmann\u75af\u72c2\u8def\u6f14\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u4ec5\u4ec5\u6709100\u5bb6\u673a\u6784\u6d89\u8db3\u4e86CDS\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u8fd8\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5bf9\u51b2\u624b\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0d\u52a8\u4ea7\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u6781\u5c11\u6570\u4eba\uff0c\u5927\u4e8e10\uff0c\u5c0f\u4e8e20\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5bf9\u8d4c\u4e86\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5d29\u6e83 \u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5c0f\u64ae\u4eba\uff0c\u7edd\u975e\u6bcf\u5929\u7fbd\u6247\u7eb6\u5dfe\u9759\u5f85\u6a2f\u6a79\u7070\u98de\u70df\u706d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u5bf9\u624b\u76d8\uff0c\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u94f6\u884c\u3001\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u3001\u8bc4\u7ea7\u673a\u6784\u7b49\u65e0\u6bd4\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u673a\u5668\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5bf9\u624b\u76d8\u80fd\u591f\u505a\u51fa\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e3e\u52a8\u6765\uff0c1 vs. All\uff0c\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u80c6\u6218\u5fc3\u60ca\u714e\u71ac\u7684\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u957f\u4ea8\u5229\u4fdd\u5c14\u68ee\u548c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4f2f\u5357\u514b\u6709\u4e00\u6bb5\u4e0d\u662f\u7b11\u8bdd\u7684\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff1a\n<\/p>\n

\u4fdd\u5c14\u68ee\uff1a”\u524d\u51e0\u5929\u6211\u53bb\u89c1\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u4e86\uff0c\u95ee\u4e86\u4ed6\u5173\u4e8e\u89e3\u51b3\u623f\u4ef7\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002”\n<\/p>\n

\u4f2f\u5357\u514b\uff1a”\u4ec0\u4e48\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1f”\n<\/p>\n

\u4fdd\u5c14\u68ee\uff1a”\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u76f4\u63a5\u628a\u8fdd\u7ea6\u7684\u623f\u5b50\u4e70\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4e00\u628a\u706b\u70e7\u6389\u3002”\n<\/p>\n

\u4f2f\u5357\u514b\uff1a”\u2026\u2026”\n<\/p>\n

\u653f\u5e9c\u5f53\u7136\u4e0d\u4f1a\u91c7\u7528\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u975e\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u6709\u6839\u636e\u7684\u63d0\u8bae\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u59a8\u505a\u4e00\u4e2a\u8352\u8bde\u4f46\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u5177\u5907\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u5e72\u6d89\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u6765\u907f\u514d\u5371\u673a\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u907f\u514d\u5371\u673a\u51fa\u73b0\u5462\uff1f\n<\/p>\n

1\uff09 \u623f\u4ef7\u66b4\u8dcc\u6216\u8005\u6da8\u4e0d\u52a8\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5982\u52a0\u5dde\uff0c\u505c\u6b62\u4f9b\u5730\u3002\u571f\u5730\u79c1\u6709\uff1f\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u7acb\u6cd5\u4e25\u7981\u5c45\u6c11\u79c1\u6709\u571f\u5730\u8fdb\u5165\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5f00\u653e\u5546\u65bd\u884c\u9884\u552e\u8bc1\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e25\u7981\u968f\u610f\u4e0b\u8c03\u5f00\u76d8\u4ef7\u683c\uff1b\n<\/p>\n

2\uff09\u5bf9\u96f7\u66fc\u3001\u8d1d\u5c14\u65af\u767b\u3001\u534e\u76db\u987f\u4e92\u52a9\u94f6\u884c\u7b49\u516c\u53f8\u8fdb\u884c\u503a\u8f6c\u80a1\uff0c\u6210\u7acb\u503a\u5238\u4eba\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u968f\u610f\u64a4\u8d44\u548c\u62bd\u8d37\uff1b\n<\/p>\n

3\uff09\u53f7\u53ec\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u5077\u6e21\u8fdb\u57ce\u52a1\u5de5\u519c\u6c11\u5de5\u4eec\u4e70\u623f\uff0c\u4e70\u623f\u9001\u7eff\u5361 \uff1b\n<\/p>\n

4\uff09 \u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u4f4e\u9996\u4ed8\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u53bb\u5e93\u5b58\uff0c\u9f13\u52b1\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u6760\u6746\uff0c\u5c45\u6c11\u52a0\u4e0d\u52a8\u7684\u8bdd\u9f13\u52b1\u4f01\u4e1a\u52a0\uff0c\u903b\u8f91\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\u3002\u9996\u4ed8\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u96f6\uff1f\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u65bd\u884c\u4e70\u623f\u62b5\u7a0e\uff0c\u623f\u8d37\u62b5\u4e2a\u7a0e\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e70\u623f\u62b5\u6240\u5f97\u7a0e\uff0c\u7b49\u7b49\u7b49\u7b49\uff1b\n<\/p>\n

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6\uff09\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5343\u4e07\u4e0d\u80fd\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5982\u679cCPI\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u66f4\u597d\uff0c3%\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7ef4\u63015\u5e74\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u62b5\u6d88\u4f01\u4e1a\u90e8\u95e815%\u7684\u8d1f\u503a\uff0c\u6c11\u4f17\u5bf9\u7269\u4ef7\u62b1\u6028\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u8c03\u6574CPI\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8c03\u4f4e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u4f4e\u670d\u52a1\u4eba\u5458\u5de5\u8d44\u5360CPI\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b9e\u5728\u538b\u4e0d\u4f4f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9a\u70b9\u91c7\u6837\uff0c”\u53cd\u6b63\u6211\u4eecU.S\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u65c1\u8fb9\u7684\u732a\u8089\u5c31\u662f\u6bd4\u4f60\u4eec\u4e70\u7684\u4fbf\u5b9c”\u3002\n<\/p>\n

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6. \u7b49\u5f85\u4e00\u751f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\n<\/p>\n

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